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THE UNITED REPUBLIC
OF TANZANIA
MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT
TANZANIA METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
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Telegrams:"METEO"DAR
ES SALAAM.
Telephone: 255 (0) 22 2460706-8
Telefax: 255 (0) 22 2460735 P.O. BOX 3056
E-mail: met@meteo.go.tz DAR ES SALAAM.
http//www.meteo.go.tz
Our ref: TMA/1622 27th
February, 2014
PRESS
RELEASE
CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH – MAY, 2014 RAINFALL
SEASON
This statement gives a review of the
performance of the October to December (OND), 2013 short rainfall season, the
ongoing seasonal rains over central, western, southwestern highlands, southern
region and southern coast, and an outlook for the March to May (MAM), 2014 long
rainfall season (Masika).
A: SUMMARY
During the October
to December 2013 short rains (Vuli), most
parts of the country featured normal rainfall. However, some parts of the
coastal and central areas experienced below normal rainfall. Generally, the
season was characterized by poor temporal and spatial rainfall distribution
particularly over much of bimodal areas. During January and February, 2014 forecasted
severe weather events such as strong winds and heavy rains that resulted into loss
of life and properties over few parts of the country were observed. The spatial
distribution of the rains in January and February 2014 was generally good over
unimodal areas. During the same period, bimodal areas experienced episodes of
off-seasonal rains.
The
outlook for the March to May, 2014 rainfall season indicates that most parts of
the bimodal areas (Lake Victoria Basin, northeastern highlands and northern
coast) are likely to receive normal to above normal rains over most parts
except for northern coastal areas where
below normal rains are anticipated. Ongoing
seasonal rains over the unimodal areas are likely to be normal to above normal.
The principal contributing climate factors to the MAM 2014
seasonal rainfall are the westerly
wind anomalies over most parts of the country particularly in the month of
March and April 2014 thus enhancing moisture intrusion from Congo Basin Atlantic Ocean
is likely to be sustained throughout the season. Warming condition off the
southern tip of Africa is expected to suppress
rainfall over the coastal areas of the country.
B:
REVIEW OF OCTOBER TO DECEMBER
2013 RAINFALL SEASON AND PROGRESS OF RAINFALL FROM JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2014
During
the October to December 2013 short rains (Vuli),
most parts of the country featured normal rainfall. However, some parts of
the coastal and central areas experienced below normal rainfall. Generally the
season was characterized by poor temporal and spatial rainfall distribution
particularly over much of Northeastern highlands and northern coast areas (Manyara,
Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Dar es salaam ) and Musoma
over the Lake Victoria
Basin Dar es Salaam , Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara
regions. During November to December,
2013 onset and distribution of rains over Kigoma, Katavi, Rukwa, Mbeya, Iringa,
Njombe and Ruvuma were generally good. However,
over central areas (Dodoma
and Singida) the rains started late and were below normal during the period. During
January and February, 2014, most of the bimodal areas including northern
Morogoro, Kilimanjaro, Arusha, Manyara, Dar
es Salaam , Coast and Shinyanga received significant off
seasonal rains. The heavy rains associated with strong winds and floods
resulted into loss of lives and destruction of properties and infrastructure over
some areas including Same, Mwanga, Hai and Kilosa districts.
The recorded rainfall during October to
December 2013 for some selected stations with their respective percentages of
long term means in brackets are indicated below:
BIMODAL AREAS
Northern Coast and hinterlands: Matangatuani recorded 390.1 mm (81%), Pemba 159.4 mm (57.9%),
Amani 573.9 mm (110.9%), JNIA 184.6 mm (59.0%), Zanzibar 338.9 mm (53.2%) and Morogoro 151.3mm (77.0%) of rainfall.
Northeastern highlands: Moshi recorded 124.6 mm (89.4%), Arusha 222.8 mm (103.1%),
Lyamungo 195.9 mm (91.8%), Same 130.0
mm (78.6%) and KIA 129.3 mm (118.3%) of rainfall.
UNIMODAL AREAS
Western areas: Tabora recorded 394.3 mm (115.2%), Kibondo
369.4 mm (92.5%), Tumbi 361.8 mm (107.5%) and Kigoma 440.3 mm (113.7%) of
rainfall.
Central areas: Dodoma
recorded 88.5 mm (58.4%),
Hombolo 68.2 mm (40.7%) and
Singida 135.3 mm (63.9%) of rainfall.
Southwestern highlands: Iringa recorded 77.9 mm (53.0%), Mbeya 228.2 mm (87.5%),
Tukuyu 386.7 mm (87.1%), Sumbawanga 273.0 mm (91.0%), Mahenge 536.3 mm (109.1%)
and Igeri 345.4 mm (104.9%) of
rainfall.
Southern areas: Mtwara recorded 149.8 mm (62.9%),
Naliendele 117.8 mm (43.6%) Kilwa 58.6 mm
(24.6%) and Songea 298.2 mm (124.7%)
of rainfall.
NB: It should be noted that: Rainfall
amounts below 75% of long term averages are categorized as below normal, 75% to
125% as near normal and greater than 125% of long term averages are categorized
as above normal.
C: CLIMATE SYSTEMS OUTLOOK
This outlook is based on a review of the current and expected state of
global climate systems and their likely impacts on the upcoming March to May
(MAM), 2014 rainfall season in the country.
Currently, the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) indicate anomalous warming
condition over the Southwestern Indian Ocean and
expected to gradually increase throughout the season. Meanwhile, near normal developing into slightly warm
SSTs condition over western Indian and equatorial Pacific Oceans Atlantic Ocean are likely to be sustained
throughout the season. These conditions are likely to favor enhanced westerly winds
over western and central parts of the country particularly during the months of
April to May, 2014 thus enhancing moisture inflow from the Congo Basin
Current anomalous warming condition off the southern tip of Africa is expected to continue during March to May 2014
thus likely to weaken the southern high pressure systems. These conditions suggest
the possibility of diffused Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over
the coastal areas of the country leading to suppressed rainfall. However,
towards the end of the season and beyond, enhanced easterly winds are likely to
influence enhanced occasional rains over the coastal areas.
D: MAM 2014 RAINFALL
OUTLOOK
(i) Long Rainfall Season (Masika)
The
long rainfall season in the northern sector (bimodal areas) of Tanzania is due
to commence in the first week of March, 2014. The details are as follows:
Northern coast and hinterlands (Dar es Salaam ,
Tanga, Coast, northern part of Morogoro regions and isles of Unguja and Pemba ): Rains
are expected to start during the second and third week
of March, 2014. The Masika rains over
much of these areas are likely to be below normal and poorly distributed. However, most parts of Morogoro region are
likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall.
Northeastern highlands (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions): The onset of rainfall is expected
during the second
to third week of March, 2014 and the rains are likely to be normal to
above normal over much of these areas except for some parts of Kilimanjaro
region (Same district and surrounding areas) where below normal rains are likely
to occur.
(ii) Seasonal Rains (the ongoing rainfall season)
Western areas (Kigoma, Tabora and Katavi regions):
The ongoing seasonal rains over these areas are expected to be mainly normal with
pockets of above normal over northeastern parts of Tabora region. These rains
are expected to recede during the fourth week of April, 2014.
Central areas (Singida and Dodoma regions): The ongoing seasonal rains are likely to be normal to above
normal. These rains are expected to recede during the second week of April, 2014.
Southern coastal areas (Mtwara and Lindi regions): The ongoing seasonal rains are likely to be normal to above
normal except for northeastern parts of Lindi where below normal rains are expected.
Cessation of rains is expected during the third week of April, 2014.
Southern areas (Ruvuma ): The ongoing seasonal rains in these areas
are likely to be normal to above normal.
Cessation of the rains is expected during the third week of April, 2014.
Southwestern highland areas (Mbeya, Iringa, Njombe, Rukwa and southern
part of Morogoro regions): The
ongoing seasonal rains in most of these areas are likely to be normal to above normal
except for Njombe region where above normal rains are expected. These rains are
expected to end during the first week of May, 2014.
NB: It should be
noted that heavy rainfall events are common even in below normal rainfall
conditions. Late cessation is likely over
most parts of unimodal areas.
Tanzania Meteorological Agency
will continue to monitor developments of weather systems including Tropical Cyclones over the southwestern
Indian Ocean, which could influence the rainfall patterns in the country.
Updates will be issued whenever necessary.
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Figure 1:
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Rainfall Outlook for March to May 2014
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Note:
The
colours in the map indicate the probabilities of rainfall in each of the three
categories - above-, near-, and below-normal. The top number indicates the
probability of rainfall occurring in the above-normal category; the middle
number is for near-normal and the bottom number for the below-normal category.
For example, the deep green covering the Lake Victoria Basin and South-Western
Highlands
E: EXPECTED IMPACTS AND
ADVISORY
E: EXPECTED IMPACTS AND ADVISORY
Agriculture and
Food Security
Sufficient soil moisture is expected over most areas of the
country except along the Coast, Unguja and Pemba
isles and few areas of the northeastern highlands where soil moisture deficit is likely to
occur. Areas over the Lake Victoria basin
(Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Simiyu and Mara regions) together with
Morogoro region, farmers are advised to continue with their normal agricultural
activities. However, above normal rains are likely to produce excessive soil moisture
conditions which can impede crop production, therefore farmers are encouraged to
seek advise from extension officers in their respective areas.
Over the northern coast (Dar es Salaam, Pwani and Tanga
regions including Unguja and Pemba isles) and north eastern highlands (Manyara,
Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions), farmers are advised to plant drought tolerant
and early maturing crops. On the other
hand, sufficient soil moisture is expected
over unimodal areas (Kigoma, Tabora, Rukwa, Katavi, Dodoma , Iringa, Lindi, and Mtwara together
with southern parts of Morogoro region); farmers are advised to continue with their
normal cropping season activities and to salvage the remaining part of the
season. However, above normal rains over some areas (Singida, Mbeya, Njombe and
Ruvuma regions), are likely to cause excessive soil moisture which can affect crops
at maturity and harvesting therefore farmers are advised to take
necessary precautions.
Energy and water
In areas where above normal rains are expected, water
levels over the lakes, dams and river flow discharge are expected to increase during
March to May, 2014 rainfall season.
Moreover, it is advised that water harvesting systems and storage structures be improved to stock the excess water during
the season. Areas with below normal rains, water harvesting and storage
techniques are encouraged.
Pasture and Water
for Livestock and wildlife
Pasture and water availability for livestock and wildlife
are likely to be good over most areas of the country except along the coastal
areas where below normal rains are expected.
Areas expected to receive below normal rains, pastoralists and
agro-pastoralists are advised to harvest and conserve pasture for use during
dry season. However, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are strongly encouraged
to seek more advice from livestock extension officers. On the other hand, areas expected to receive
normal to above normal rains are likely to have improved biodiversity, plant
flowering, honey/wax production and reduced animal migration thus expected to reduce
human wildlife conflicts.
Local Authorities
During the March to May 2014, rainfall season episodes of
heavy rains are expected to occur and may result into disasters. Therefore, Municipals
are advised to take precautions including open up and clear of drainage systems to avoid water accumulation
due to surface runoffs so as to reduce the impacts of heavy rains that may
result into floods. Same precautions
should be taken for Areas expected to receive normal and below normal rains
(coastal belt and some areas of the north eastern highlands), due to the fact
that there is likelihood of heavy rain fall episodes.
Health sector
In areas where above and below normal rains are expected,
there is a likelihood of waterborne and water related diseases such as malaria,
trachoma and cholera thus necessary precautions should be taken by communities
and the responsible authorities.
Planning
Socio-economic sectors are advised to proper utilize March
to May, 2014 rainfall outlook in their daily activities and during the
implementation of National Development Plan in order to reduce risk that may
occur.
Disaster Management
Disaster management authorities and other stakeholders are
advised to take necessary measures that would ensure preparedness, response,
and mitigation of any negative impacts resulting from the expected weather and
climate conditions.
The Agency strongly advices all users including
agriculture, food security, livestock, wildlife, water resources, energy, health
sectors, etc to seek more advice from experts in their respective sectors.
Dr. Agnes L. Kijazi
DIRECTOR
GENERAL
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